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FEBRUARY 3,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

THIS POLITELY IS KNOWN AS A RACKET – FROM THE NEW YORK POST:  Don’t look now, but more homeless people are coming to a nice hotel near you.  The Post reported on Thursday that the city now pays to put up a mind-boggling 11,000 homeless people in hotels — nearly one in six of the roughly 61,000 previously in shelters — costing taxpayers an average $222 a night compared with $150 a night in shelters.  The Big Apple’s hotels are making less money than they were a few years ago, and owners are scrambling for bucks as they see the value of their properties tumble. The recent creation of tens of thousands of new rooms, as well as competition from Airbnb, has driven down room rates and the city’s hotel market is “performing like mushy apple sauce,” says industry journal Hotel Management.  Mayor de Blasio, ever eager to throw Band-Aids at serious crises, offered to fill empty rooms with homeless people, taking large bunches of rooms, or even entire hotels, off owners’ hands, sometimes for more than they’d make from regular guests. And hoteliers are more than willing to play along. Their business, after all, depends on it.  And I'd imagine that the mayor's political war chest is suddenly receiving large contributions from previously non-political hotel owners.

GOP ROMPS IN STATEHOUSES – FROM FOX:   The top 10 most popular governors in America are Republican and 12 GOP governors running for re-election in 2018 enjoy positive approval rankings, according to newly released data.  Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker, a Republican, is leading the poll as the most popular governor in the U.S. with 69 percent of surveyed people approving his job, while only 16 percent say he is a lousy governor, according to the latest Morning Consult quarterly poll.  Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Alabama’s Kay Ivey are the second and the third most popular governors in the country, with less than a fifth of the people opposing their leadership.  The rest of the top 10 most popular governors based on their approval rankings were: Phil Scott, R-Vt., 63 percent; Matt Mead, R-Wyo., 63 percent; Brian Sandoval, R-Nev., 61 percent; Gary Herbert, R-Utah, 60 percent; Asa Hutchinson, R-Ark., 59 percent; Greg Abbott, R-Texas, 59 percent; and Dennis Daugaard, R-S.D., 59 percent.  Governorships are critical, even to the national party.  Governors oversee the political campaigns of their party in presidential election years.  They can make a major difference.

NEW CHANCE FOR ROMNEY – FROM THE ATLANTIC:  Mitt Romney hasn’t even officially announced his candidacy for U.S. Senate, yet Republican leadership is already seeing stars.  According to a Republican donor with direct knowledge, Senate GOP leaders have expressed an early interest in having Romney succeed Colorado Senator Cory Gardner as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The role involves leading the Senate GOP’s fundraising arm and helping recruit and vet prospective GOP candidates for the upper chamber. A Republican source close to Romney confirmed that the idea of the Utah Republican taking over the NRSC has generated chatter in recent weeks.  On Thursday afternoon, Gardner placed a call to a GOP donor, and said that he and Senate leadership “liked Romney” for the NRSC post.   This will be fascinating.  Romney has been a cutting critic of President Trump.  And yet, as a U.S. senator from Utah and a high party functionary, he'll be expected to follow Trump's lead.  Will he?  I'm guessing he will, to a large degree.  Otherwise, his new rise in the party will be crushed.  His niece, Ronna Romney McDaniel, is chair of the Republican National Committee, and a fierce Trump loyalist.

February 3, 2018       Permalink

WELL SAID – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 1:29 P.M. ET:  I often turn to City Journal, the publication of the Manhattan Institute, for real wisdom about the events we cover.  A new piece in City Journal sums up what we're seeing, and does it very well.  Required reading: 

The publication yesterday by the House Intelligence Committee, under the leadership of chairman Devin Nunes, of a four-page summary memo regarding FBI surveillance of a Trump campaign advisor in 2016 is the long-awaited opening act of an extended drama about the Obama administration’s abuse of power—which, when all is revealed, might yet outdo that of the Nixon administration.

Obama concealed his sharp-edged, Chicago-style machine politics under the rhetorical cover of progressivism. He was protected by a press corps that first enlisted in his administration and then fought to stop Donald Trump. But now that Obama is out of office, his ability to intimidate is much diminished. This past week, a 2005 picture of a beaming Obama next to a bright-eyed Louis Farrakhan surfaced, after having been held back for more than a decade at the behest of a member of the Congressional Black Caucus. Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, who had been tried for corruption by Obama’s Justice Department after he refused to toe the party line about the “peace-loving” mullahs of Iran, has now seen the charges against him dropped. Z Street, a hawkish nonprofit supporter of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government in Israel, had been tied up with IRS matters since 2009; it has just been released from its legal chains. Democrats are holding to the line that the prophet of hope and change ran a pure administration, virtually free of scandal. But the memo is probably just the beginning; we’re likely to see many more revelations come out.  

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  We emphasize that we are just at the beginning of inquiries into the life and times of Barack Obama and his merry men, and not-so-merry women.   Trump may be a rough guy, but he gets the job done.  Obama was a smooth guy, and got nothing done.

February 3, 2018       Permalink

THE MEMO – AT 11:47 A.M. ET:  The now-famous memo was dropped on us yesterday, and already it's boring.   Oh, and do you remember the State of the Union message?  When was that?

The news moves quickly, and, as Johnny Carson used to say, how quickly they forget.

So what about this memo?  Basically, it is a starting point.  It suggests that elements of the FBI and Justice Department used deceptive practices to launch investigations into the Trump campaign.  The memo was released by House Republicans.  The Democrats are writing their own memo, which the media will use to discredit the Republican memo.  The only beneficiaries will be the makers of copying machines.

There is enough in the GOP memo to support calls for a wider investigation than the one Mueller is conducting.  Dwight Eisenhower used to say that, if you have a difficult problem, enlarge the problem.  We have a difficult problem – sorting out all the details of who, if anyone, colluded with Russia and who, if anyone, used illegal procedures during the presidential campaign to destroy the other side.  It is time to appoint a second special counsel, with a focus, not on Trump, but on the Democratic Party and its operatives.

Yet, while advocating a second special counsel, I call attention to the havoc caused by the first one.  This is no way to run a government in a free society – to have a former FBI director, now special counsel, running loose and investigating almost anything he wishes.  It is a dangerous mechanism, especially considering that one of the things Mueller is probing is Trump's firing of Mueller's successor at the FBI, James Comey, who is a personal friend of Mueller's.  Conflict of interest anyone?

The general consensus is that Mueller will survive and will pose a grave danger to Trump and the Republican Party, especially if Mueller releases his "findings" just before the midterm elections.  He will find things that reflect badly on Trump, because "finding things" is what a special counsel must do to justify the millions of dollars spent.  Whether those "things" will lead to any action against the president is another matter.  That may depend on who controls the House after the election.  The House is where impeachments begin. 

The president had a spectacular week.  The economic news remains strong, despite a blip in the stock market.  His State of the Union was very well received.  He got a major bounce in the polls.

But Mueller is in his path.  And Mueller has the backing of an increasingly hysterical, anti-Trump media.

February 3,  2018     Permalink

FEBRUARY 2,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:51 P.M. ET: 

WILL UNITED BE ALLOWED TO EXIST? – FROM SMITHSONIAN:    Over the weekend, a United Airlines passenger named Dexter was getting ready to board a flight from Newark to Los Angeles. He had his ticket ready. He was, incidentally, looking pretty great. But Dexter was not allowed to board the plane. Dexter, you see, is a peacock.  According to Daniella Silva of NBC News, the peacock, which is reportedly an emotional support animal, and his human were turned away from their flight at the Newark Liberty International Airport on Sunday. United Airlines told Silva in a statement that the bird “did not meet guidelines for a number of reasons, including its weight and size.”  I love animals.  I'm all for peacocks.  Peacocks have fought in all our wars.  But I will not get on a plane and sit next to a peacock.  That is my feeling.  Call me a birdist pig. 

ANOTHER GREAT MOMENT IN EDUCATION – FROM COLLEGE FIX:  A New York high school has canceled a production of “The Hunchback of Notre Dame” after a student activist group complained about a white student being cast in a lead role.  The school now will be putting on an alternative production.
Members of Ithaca High School’s Students United Ithaca — all five of them — got together and wrote up a letter and list of demands after the role of Esmeralda went to a Caucasian peer.  “It shows you that theater wasn’t made for you,” said Maddi Carroll, a member of the Students United group who is African-American. “And it shows you that, if you can’t get the parts that are written for you, what parts are you going to get?”  Students United’s letter conceded that the student cast as Esmeralda “is a stellar actor, singer, and dancer” and that any production would be “lucky to have her.”  However, it added: “Our concern is not with her, but with the fact that in terms of demographics, she is the wrong choice for this role.”  What a sick idea.  The most talented actress is denied the role because she is the wrong color, and these social justice warriors (choke) say they're not concerned about her.  What a terrible lesson this sends.

THE UNDERGROUND WORLD – FROM BBC:  Researchers have found more than 60,000 hidden Maya ruins in Guatemala in a major archaeological breakthrough.  Laser technology was used to survey digitally beneath the forest canopy, revealing houses, palaces, elevated highways, and defensive fortifications.  The landscape, near already-known Maya cities, is thought to have been home to millions more people than other research had previously suggested.  The researchers mapped over 810 square miles (2,100 sq km) in northern Peten.  Archaeologists believe the cutting-edge technology will change the way the world will see the Maya civilisation.  "I think this is one of the greatest advances in over 150 years of Maya archaeology," said Stephen Houston, Professor of Archaeology and Anthropology at Brown University.  The researchers also found 6,000 e-mails from Hillary Clinton and 45,000 Chicago voters.

February 2,  2018     Permalink

We don't do many plugs here, but we are always happy to call attention to books written by our distinguished readers and subscribers.  In that spirit, may I recommend "World War 1990 – Anzacs," by the prominent military historian, William Stroock.  It's part of Will's "World War 1990" series, taking us back to the time when the Cold War was presumably ending, and new crises developing.  Although the book is fiction, the reader will get an education in military strategy and equipment, with the action seen, in Will's usual style, from a variety of perspectives.  Good reading, exciting, and available here at Amazon.  

A SUPER SUNDAY? – AT 12:22 P.M. ET:  The Super Bowl is played this Sunday, and there's almost as much speculation about the TV ratings as about the outcome of the game between the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles.  NFL ratings have nosedived this season, thanks in large measure to the politicization of the game by the "take a knee" crowd.  Will the losses continue into the biggest football day of the year?  From Yahoo: 

Super Bowl 52 is just a few days away, and after NFL regular season TV ratings fell by nearly 10% this season on average, one of the biggest questions pundits and sports media have is: Will the Super Bowl ratings be good?

If the results of a new survey from Seton Hall University are to be believed, the answer might be no.
Seton Hall surveyed 706 Americans across the country, via landlines and cellphones, from Jan. 29 to Jan. 31. The first question asked people how closely they follow the NFL. Of those who said they follow it “very closely,” which the survey identifies as NFL fans, 16% said they won’t watch this year’s Super Bowl. The poll has a 3.8% margin of error.

Rick Gentile, director of the Seton Hall Sports Poll, calls 16% a “significant number” that “should be a concern to the league, the broadcasters and especially the advertisers.”

The poll didn’t ask those why say they won’t watch what their reasons are, but the political controversy that overshadowed this football season is almost surely a factor.

COMMENT:  We'll see Sunday.  The NFL has done precious little to get itself out of the hole it's in.  There is nothing in writing that says football has to continue as a major professional sport.

February 2,  2018     Permalink

MORE BAD NEWS FOR THE DEMS – AT 10:52 A.M. ET:  It keeps building.  Once the proud party of Roosevelt, Truman, and Kennedy, the Democratic Party today is a public embarrassment, obsessed with race, gender, and ethnicity, and little else.  It's also reportedly broke.  From The Week: 

The Democratic National Committee had a rough 2017, plagued by leadership troubles, internal squabbling, and unflattering reports. To top it off, the party ended the year "dead broke," says The Intercept's Ryan Grim.

The Democratic Party is carrying more than $6 million in debt, according to year-end filings — and has just $6.5 million in the bank. Do the math, and the party is working with just over $400,000 overall. Meanwhile, the Republicans are swimming in pools of money. The Republican National Committee had raised $132 million by the end of 2017 — about twice as much as the DNC — and entered 2018 with almost $40 million to spare, with not a penny of debt.

COMMENT:  Who would you rather have running the government?  The national party is a mess.  However, at the local level it is doing better, often because some local Democratic candidates are actually sane, and have at least some belief in the United States.

I'm careful about speculation, but I do believe there is some chance the Democratic Party may collapse, with a new moderate-to-liberal party emerging as a possible replacement.  It would be healthy for the country.

February 2, 2018       Permalink

SPECTACULAR – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:  We have wondered what kind of bounce the president would receive from his State of the Union message.  We have the first polling answer:  A spectacular one.  From Rasmussen: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows President Trump making substantial gains after Tuesday’s State of the Union speech, and achieving his highest voter approval since March 7, 2017. 

Forty-nine (49%) of Likely U.S. Voters approve of the president's job performance. Another 49% disapprove.

The latest figures include 35% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 38% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -3.

These findings include the first two full nights of surveying following Tuesday’s speech.

COMMENT:  Okay, Rasmussen tends to give the president a bit more in polls than some other pollsters, but Rasmussen has also been awfully accurate.  Trump normally underpolls.  He did better in the primaries and in the general election than polls had indicated.  So if you see CNN come in with lower numbers, that's part of a pattern.

Rasmussen is the only daily tracking poll left, so we do get a sense of direction, and the direction for the president has, recently, been dramatically upward.  The president also gained substantially in the Fox poll, coming in recently at 45%.

All of this can change, of course, and you may be sure that the anti-Trump press, seeing the new numbers, will double down on its bias, to drive those numbers down again.  (Some smarter journalists will not double down, and will understand the new reality.)

The tax cut will show up this week in many paychecks.  That will not hurt Mr. Trump.

February 2,  2018     Permalink